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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

If A Lockout Befalls A League And No One Hears It Then Does It Not Make A Sound?


            After the devastating impact that Hurricane Sandy had on both New York and New Jersey, the NBA canceled the game between the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks despite being the first regular season contest at the new Barclays Center. This is now the second year the NBA has had to cancel at least one regular season game. Last year’s lockout forced the NBA to play a 66-game schedule (as supposed to the standard 82-game schedule). The NFL also considered canceling games last year during its lockout and ended up reducing its pre-season schedule by two contests.
           One thing that the NFL and NBA had in common was that it was difficult not hear about each lockout on a frequent basis. Almost everyday there was “news” about the current state of the negotiations, who was “winning” the lockout public relations battle, and when the players would return to their teams. In fact, the extensive coverage has been cited as one reason that overall attendance, ratings, and interest either matched or exceeded levels the year before the lockouts occurred in both leagues. In fact, one could argue that these lockouts actually were beneficial for the leagues as they brought increased attention to the NFL and NBA at times when audiences are traditionally focused on other sports.
            However, this argument does not appear to apply to the NHL even though its lockout shares many similarities with both the NFL and NBA. The issues that separate the owners and players are very similar the ones that caused the NFL and NBA lockouts – mainly how do the leagues divide its revenues. Currently, the NHL players receive 57% of all hockey related revenue and the owners have proposed that the players receive only 50% of the revenues. Also similar to the NFL and NBA, attendance, ratings, and revenues have increased consistently on annual basis over the past five years before the lockout. In addition to signing a 10-year $2 billion extension NBC Sports, the NHL had signed new multimillion dollar sponsorship deals with companies like MillerCoors and Tim Hortons to new lucrative new deals (the MillerCoors deal is still working its way through the courts after a suit filed by Labatt’s). Similar to NBA players, many top NHL players have agreed to play in other overseas leagues while lockout negotiations occur.
            Despite its similarities to the NFL and NBA, the NHL has not received the same coverage and attention as compared other leagues even though this lockout has already had a much greater impact on its season. The league has announced it has canceled all games through the end of November, and it is considering both canceling The Winter Classic and The NHL All-Star Game. It is increasingly likely that the entire 2012-13 will be canceled as well.
            And, yet, relatively few people seem to care. Headlines like “Fan Take: Hard to Care About NHL Lockout This Time Around” showcase one of the two dominant memes about the work stoppage. The first one is that NHL fans do not care because NHL lockouts occur so frequently. This is the second lockout in less than a decade and the fourth since 1992. As Zac Wassink states, worrying about NHL work stoppage is “like complaining about being hot in summer and cold in winter: You know what's coming, there's nothing you can do about it.” With so many teams in the NHL still losing millions of dollars on annual basis despite significant changes in revenue distributions and player salaries after the 2004-05 season, Wassink’s analysis makes a lot of sense. There have been so many NHL lockouts that fewer fans will care when each subsequent one does occur.
            Yet, the other meme is the one that should frighten the NHL. This one suggests it is likely that people do not care about the lockout because they are no longer paying attention to the NHL at all. There are so many more options for fans, media, and sponsors to choose from for their sporting dollar than ever before. The NHL directly competes with the NFL, NBA, and MLB during various different times in its season in addition to competition from collegiate and high school sports. This does not even account for other entertainment options that are competing for NHL audiences like movies, television, restaurants, museums, etc. 
The increase in competition poses a significant challenge to the NHL because its teams require committed fans that will to attend games to be successful. A recent Forbes article highlights the fact that the average NHL teams rely on in-game dollars for 50% of their annual revenues while the average teams in the NFL, NBA, or MLB rely on in-game attendance for no more than 33% of its annual revenue. After the 2004-05 lockout, the league rebounded because the “the fans came back in droves. During the 2005-06 season 25 of the 30 teams had an increase in attendance from the 2003-04 season. Moreover, the average cost (tickets, concessions, parking, etc.) for a family of four rose from $256 in 2003-04, to $283 at the start of the 2007-08 campaign. The latest figures from Team Marketing Report, for 2011, show the average cost at $329, a 29% increase since the season before the 2004-05 lockout.”
The NHL is betting that these per cap dollar trends will occur after the current lockout ends. This may not be the case as the sports environment is different now than it was in 2004-05. If the NHL lockout continues then it becomes increasingly unlikely that its teams with fail to hear the number of cheers echoing through its arenas as occurred before the lockout. And that it is noise the NHL cannot afford to stifle.    

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