From the perspective of Washington Redskins fans, coaches,
and players, today marked the end of the most difficult stretch of an otherwise
largely positive 2012-13 season. This year’s team winning its first NFC East
Division Title since the 1999-00 season has been marred by the torn lateral
cruciate ligament (LCL) and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) suffered by Robert
Griffin III in last Sunday’s playoff game versus the Seattle Seahawks. The
team’s star quarterback had strained his LCL after a devastating hit during a
game against the Baltimore Ravens in early December. After missing a game
against the Cleveland Browns, Griffin started and helped the team win its final
two regular season contests. Yet, it was clear Griffin’s knee prevented him
from dynamic, athletic playmaker that made him a candidate for both the NFL’s
Most Valuable Player (MVP) and Rookie of the Year awards.
Only three
days after collapsing on the ground at Fedex Field, Griffin had surgery to
repair his LCL and ACL. Yet, the blame game for who was at fault for the injury
started much more quickly. Many media members and fans criticized coach Mike
Shanahan for keeping Griffin in the playoff game and not playing backup
quarterback Kirk Cousins, who led the Redskins to a convincing victory against
the Browns in his only career start. Some wonder why Griffin either did not
revealing the extent of his injuries to the coaching staff or failing to remove
himself from the game when knew he was injured.
And others blame Dr. James Andrews. Arguably
the most famous and revered sports orthopedic surgeon in the world, Andrews has
been standing on the team’s sideline as the team’s medical consultant during
for regular season games since before Griffin first injured his knee. Recent
reports have surfaced, however, that Andrews had not orally communicated with
Shanahan about Griffin’s knee injury during the Ravens game (instead giving him
a “Hi” wave to indicate Griffin was OK). The day before the Seahawks game,
Andrews was quoted as saying he had been a “nervous
wreck” watching Griffin play since he first injured his knee. Many have wondered
why Andrews had not been more forceful in recommending that Griffin not play if
he thought there was a good chance the quarterback could re-injure his knee.
From a
Block Six Analytics perspective, determining whom to blame for Griffin’s injury
is not the goal of the post. Instead, we hope that Griffin’s injury does not
also lead to a potentially bigger loss in player development and on-the field
performance management. The Redskins actually did take an innovative step in
hiring Dr. Andrews as a medical consultant. Despite paying athletes millions of
dollars to compete for their team, many sports organizations do not invest
nearly as much in having best medical personnel to take care of its players.
For the same amount of money as the average salary professional athlete makes
in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL, sports organizations could hire the top medical
specialist in virtually any field. Having players return to the field more
quickly by having the best medical care possible would seem to provide a distinct
competitive advantage as compared to compensating an average player.
This logic
does not simply apply to the medical space. As B6A has discussed before, on and
off the field analytics has become one of the hottest topics in the sports
industry. Yet, it is still uncommon for sports organizations to hire leading
economists, data miners, or statisticians to evaluate performance data. Again,
sports organizations can hire these professionals at a fraction of the cost of
signing a star or average player. As Bill James, the statistician largely
credited with coming up with the performance metrics highlighted in Moneyball, stated, “You can get 100 guys
like me for what you were paying Manny Ramirez.”
Even taking
the best approach, however, does not guarantee the best outcome. As Nate Silver
recently stated in a Reddit Ask
Me Anything Forum, “If you watch a poker hand, and a guy gets all-in before
the flop with aces against kings (an 80/20 bet), our animal instinct is very
much to tag him as a LOSER if a king comes up on the flop, even though he
probably played his hand perfectly.” The Redskins actually did employ Dr.
Andrews (using Silvers parlance, the team played pocket aces correctly) and
Griffin still suffered a major knee injury. It is critical to not let what
happened with the Griffin to negate the fact that the Redskins made the right strategic
decision to hire Dr. Andrews. Sports organizations that employ similar logic will
have the best opportunity to win their next bet.
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